Greenfield development versus inward urban development - challenges in sustainable development in central and eastern Europe

Hanns-Uve Schwedler, European Academy of the Urban Environment

Towns and cities in central and eastern European countries (CEEC) are currently facing two structural processes, which on the face of it may seem diametrically opposed: on the one hand many once prospering inner-city industrial and commercial sites have as a result of economic changes over the past decade either become derelict or at least are currently extremely under-used. On the other hand, the process of conurbation or urban sprawl is proceeding at a pace which leaves anything experienced in the west far behind. One form of expression of this conurbation process is the number of shopping centres mushrooming on the outskirts of or near large towns and cities on 'greenfield' sites. In some municipal areas these centres alone account for more than 50 per cent of the increase in land use during the past few years. Both processes are - it hardly needs to be said - consequences of the dramatic political and economic changes in towns and cities in CEEC since the end of the nineteen eighties, and the opening up of markets and moves towards economic globalisation which came along in this wake. Nevertheless, the two processes did not run concurrently. Whereas derelict entire regions as well as inner-city commercial areas were primarily characteristic of the first half of the decade, the process of outward development as seen in urban sprawl and the move of shopping centres to greenfield sites is a phenomenon arising in a more pronounced fashion only since 1995.

Carrying coals to Newcastle is not to be recommended, any more than one should attempt to put water back into the river; despite these caveats I intend to draw your attention to some economic structural data which are probably known to most of you in essence.

(SLIDE 1: Change in GDP in %)
(Source: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft: Wirtschaftslage und Reformprozesse in Mittel- und Osteuropa, 1997)

This table indicates changes in GDP compared in each case to the previous year; it is quite clear that the process of dereliction occurred during the phase of negative growth, whereas that of large scale shopping centres coincides with economic stabilisation.

(SLIDE 2: Proportion of industry and private sector in GDP)
Source: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft: Wirtschaftslage und Reformprozesse in Mittel- und Osteuropa, 1997

Whereas in 1992 the industrial sector still accounted for more than one third of the gross domestic product, after four short years have elapsed the corresponding figure has fallen to about one quarter. Over the same period of time the share of the private sector has more than doubled from a bare one third in 1992. This rapid private sector growth is not merely a reflection of changes in the social and economic systems in CEEC, it also reflects the growth of the tertiary sector and - implicitly - the increasing importance of international investment in these countries. It is in the first instance international investors who are responsible for the rapid growth of these shopping centres.

Let us turn to the current situation in some central and eastern European municipalities in real terms. Bearing in mind that 'large scale shopping centres' is a relatively new phenomenon, and in view of the to some extent parlous state of statistical data collection, it is difficult and unreliable to compile comparable figures. Nevertheless, the following table may at least bring out the dynamic force involved in this development process of large scale shopping centres:

Shopping centres in excess of 10,000 square metres floor space, existing and under construction

Source: EA.UE, Out-of town shopping centres and trading estates, Berlin 1998

The vast majority of the shopping centres listed in the selected municipal areas were - or are being (some are still in the process of construction) - built later than 1995. In size they not only correspond to developments in western Europe, their share of total retail sales area - if one projects figures available for 1995 on to the following years - will in the very near future account for between one seventh (in the case of Prague) and considerably more than one third (in the case of Ljubljana). If we reflect that even in the home of shopping centres, the United Kingdom, in 1993 their share was no more than 12 per cent, then the significance, nay the dramatic nature, of this development for the municipalities concerned becomes crystal clear.

The dynamic development process of large scale shopping centres must be seen in the context of an urban planning situation characterised by uncertainty, widely diverging ideas and debates concerning goals, and frequently by conflicts between urban planners and politicians:

1. many cities are just now in the process of detaching themselves, as far as master planning is concerned, from the monocentric planning ideas of the past, and are engaged in developing a structured hierarchy of focal centres. In numerous instances these planning concepts do exist on paper, i.e. in the master plan, but they still need to be implemented. The frequently un-directed locating of out of town large scale shopping centres is in many instances completely without - or with only minimal - relevance to the existing physical planning based on function, upon which - barely in touch with real life - other planning procedures, such as traffic planning, must of necessity be based. For example, in Warsaw only four of the total of eighteen shopping centres with a retail sales area in excess of ten thousand square metres have been built on sites which were designated for such development in the zoning plan. Locating large scale shopping centres in this fashion not only makes the development of neighbourhood and other suburban centres which are integrated into the urban fabric extremely difficult, if not impossible; it also means that existing retail concentrations such as city centres are exposed to tremendous pressure of competition. This is of course particularly true for the frequently still somewhat unattractive city centres of numerous former 'socialist cities'. Even for a city such as Budapest, which in the past in no way resembled this stereotype of communist monolith, there are fears that between 20 and 25 per cent of small and medium-sized retail businesses could go under.
   
2. As a result to some extent of increasing democratisation in CEEC, but also due to lack of controlling legislation, individual local municipal authorities have in fact a high degree of local autonomy and spheres of responsibility, including determining sites for locating large scale shopping centres. In this way competition between individual urban districts to attract large scale retail development can be observed. This was for many years - and to some extent still is - a factor in barely controlled development and rivalry between local authorities in the wider conurbation of major cities in several western European countries. The process may be seen in exemplary fashion in Warsaw:
   

   Shopping centres in excess of 5,000 square metres - Warsaw

   	Number	Floor space (m2)	Average floor space (m2)	Average car parking (no.)
   Within municipal boundaries	12	175.910	14.659	778
   Outside municipal boundaries	6	152.600	25.433	903

   Source: T. Dékány, in: EA.UE, Out-of town shopping centres and trading estates, Berlin 1998
   
   One third of the large scale shopping centres in the Greater Warsaw area are actually located outside the city boundaries. However, the remaining two thirds are, due to rivalry between individual local districts, virtually not integrated into the master plan for the whole city, as has already been indicated. Incidentally, the figures also point to two further typical aspects: both the retail sales areas and the areas available for car parking are increasing exponentially as compared to the city centre. This is just by the way.

3. Urban planners in most CEE municipalities are - in common with the past experience of their western European counterparts - faced with the problems of rapidly rising private car traffic. Pressures from the individual, from business and politics, for cities designed for the motor car, and for implementing road networks, which are powerful anyway, receive support from large scale shopping centres. Developments, at least those on greenfield sites, depend in their planning on good access in particular to the highway system and on the provision of sufficient parking areas. To give an example, in Budapest, as the following slide illustrates, in future one third of all retail sales complexes will only be accessible by private motorised transport, with absolutely no links to the local public transport system.
   

   Shopping centres in excess of 10,000 square metres - Budapest

   	Number	Floor space (m2)	Average floor space (m2)	Only motorised access
   Existing 1990	4	84.000	21.000	0
   Built since 1990	8	199.000	24.875	3
   Under construction	6	202.000	33.667	2
   Planned *)	18	630.000	35.000	5

   *) 11 license issued
   Source: EA.UE, Out-of town shopping centres and trading estates, Berlin 1998
   
   This reliance on private motorised transport is a determining factor in locating large scale shopping centres. Towns or cities with outer ring roads or by-passes are more likely to be where shopping centres are being built out of town. The picture in Ljubljana is an absolute text book example of this process:
   
   (Slide 3 - map of Ljubljana)

If we now draw together the points made so far, a number of reasons, some of them structural in nature, can be identified as contributing to the rapid development of large scale retail sales areas in CEEC:

• underdeveloped trade and shopping centre structures
• neglected inner cities
• a backlog of restructuring problems in cities
• an existing position of coordination problems between a city and its hinterland
• a high level of mobility in the population / good road network development
• a lack of commitment amongst all the players
• political and legal framework conditions which are inadequate and/or not adequately implemented

Some of the contributing causes listed here are in fact themselves intensified by their results, i.e. by the dynamic process of shopping centre development - a real vicious circle, evidently!?

As a reaction to current developments, there are calls in several central and eastern European towns and cities for a policy of retail trade location oriented towards protectionist goals. The outcome could well be over-reaction, such as complete prohibition on establishment of - usually western European - retail trade multiples. This, however, would merely further postpone urgently required modernisation of retail structures. Ultimately, out-of-town shopping centres have developed in response to consumer needs. Urban planning which neglects the needs of its citizens is doomed to fail. In consequence, the position taken cannot be one of blocking these new forms of development; rather the issue is to incorporate them to an acceptable degree into existing regional and urban planning structures.

By turning the already stated causes for the rapid growth of large scale shopping centres in CEEC around, it is possible to derive the most salient approaches towards this integration and guidance objective. This is not the place in which to go into detail about the approaches. What is clear is that it is primarily in four areas of policy and planning where action needs to be taken:

• city centre planning
• traffic planning
• framework legislative conditions
• cooperation between urban districts and/or local authorities in the wider conurbation

A glance at current practice in EU member states reveals that it is in just these spheres of action where (not without relapses and contradictions) guidance policy for large scale retail trade development has been effected.

(Slide 4 - Comparison of regulatory instruments)

Central and eastern European towns and cities do however have a further instrument at their disposal, which is true to a far lesser degree for western European municipalities: the inner city derelict or under-used industrial and commercial land which was mentioned at the beginning.

Derelict and underused land in selected cities (1995)

Source: EA.UE: Restructuring of Derelict Industrial Areas, Berlin 1996

The details given about inner city derelict land in only a few of the central European metropolises indicate without any qualification what tremendous potential they contain for inward development in the municipalities concerned.

The sites in question are by no means in less desirable locations. They are - as a series of examples can show (Slides 5 - slides) - both fully integrated into the existing urban structures and well connected to the local public transport system. Another point in their favour is that the sites are frequently in public ownership. Thus the cities have large reserve areas at their disposal, which they can use as a control instrument - by means of pricing as well - to influence the establishment of large scale retail trade outlets and shopping centres.

This in no way secures the city centres and their traditional inner city structures. They will in future too need to fight to maintain their function within the urban fabric. However, at least the cities will have an effective tool in their efforts to combat rampant urban sprawl, with all its negative consequences for the environment, the economy and for finances - one need only think for example of traffic congestion.

At this point an entirely new perspective for discussion is indicated. These large inner city shopping centres, arcades and retail trade complexes are themselves not uncontroversial and also arouse anxieties (*angsai-eties) amongst small traders. In the final analysis what is at stake is creating new identity models for towns and cities in CEEC. Clearly they will not be the same as that of the traditional European city (just as they aren't and will not be in western Europe); but equally clearly, the model must not be merely the stereotyped American city with its rapacious land use in the surrounding area.

In this way the two development processes in towns and cities in CEEC, the occurrence of derelict land and the appearance of large scale shopping centres, provide stimuli and instruments to further elaborate the models in functional-physical planning. The challenge is to respond to these in a creative way.